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Prediction for CME (2023-11-09T12:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-11-09T12:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27655/-1
CME Note: Halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The start time is based off of STEREO A COR2 imagery due to a data gap in SOHO at the time of this DONKI entry. The eruption starts around 2023-11-08T10:42Z and is primarily characterized as a broad region of dimming centered around S10W10 near AR 3480. A piece of a filament may have erupted as seen in SDO AIA 304. This CME is associated with a C2.6 flare from AR 3480 peaking at 2023-11-09T11:18Z best seen in SDO AIA 131. Dimming is visible in SDO AIA 193, post-eruptive arcades can be best seen in SDO AIA 94/193, and opening field lines are visible in SDO AIA 171. Increase in B_total from 1.8 nT to 5.12 nT, eventually reaching a maximum of 8.3 nT, accompanied by an increase in speed from 450 km/s to approx. 530 km/s, which reached a maximum of approx. 580 km/s. Rotation is also seen in the magnetic field components, and Bz reaches near -5.8 nT. Accompanied by increases in density and temperature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-11-12T05:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-11-11T23:01Z (-13.5h, +13.5h)
Prediction Method: ELEvo
Prediction Method Note: 
CME input parameters:
Apex direction: W10
Inverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7
Angular half width (in ecliptic): 35°

initial CME speed: 782 (+/- 50) km/s
initial height: 21.5 R_sun
initial time: 2023-11-09T16:01Z
drag parameter: 0.15e-7 (+/-0.025e-7) /km 
ambient solar wind speed: 450 (+/- 50) km/s
time step: 5 min
ensemble members: 100k
Lead Time: 40.97 hour(s)
Difference: 6.48 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tanja Amerstorfer (ASWO) on 2023-11-10T12:32Z
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